Are frail Latin America democracies jeopardizing climate change commitments?
From Mexico to Patagonia the region is plagued with economic, political, and social problems exacerbated by the global pandemic. Democracy seems to favour environmental discussion and support protective initiatives; fewer desirable features of this political system might hamper them.
By Gina Rodríguez-Prénovost
Inherent features of democratic institutions are known to be both beneficial and detrimental to countries’ commitments to solve environmental problems.
The healthy side will favour press freedom and freedom of expression to increase public awareness about climate change and help people make wiser ecological decisions, including choosing their political leaders and parties. Guaranteeing free, transparent, and fair elections, inherent to a democratic system, facilitate a more equitable representation of the electorate in politics. Freedom of association and equal electoral competition creates an opportunity for green organizations to participate in the political processes. Equally, space for civil society organizations facilitates them taking part in public life, run informative campaigns and consult decision-makers.
Democracies are also perceived as more involved in the international environmental agreement and comply with the international treaties.
However, some of the less desirable features that might hamper environmental commitments can be observed in Latin America democracies.
For instance, political leaders in democracies can be short-sighted and driven by an electoral agenda and can prevent them from allocating budget to implement long term policy projects such a climate change commitment.
Also, despite the pluralistic nature of democracies, strong corporate interest groups can influence political decision-making. Politicians and policy-makers are pressured to respond to these groups’ short-term interest and more likely against environmental protection.
The Global Ranking of Congressional Research Service (2020) on Latin American and Caribbean countries, makes a starks revelation on the state of Latin American’s democratic system. According with the research only five nations in the region live in a democracy in consolidation.
Ten other countries have a defective democracy, including Brazil and Mexico; four have moderate democracies, and Cuba and Venezuela are considered hard-line democracies.
The above information clashes with what was perceived in the region between 2005 and 2010 when Latin countries celebrated 18 presidential elections. These elections were examples of electoral democracy, which entailed free, transparent, and competitive elections accompanied by significant political and electoral mobilization.
According to a study of University of Notre Dame (2013), during the first decade of the 21st century, Latin America experienced the most widespread presence of democracy in its history (Democracy in Latin America. Between hope and despair. Ignacio Walker. PDF).
There was also a qualitative advance in democratization materialized by the elections of a union leader, Lula da Silva in Brazil; two women. Michelle Bachellet, Chile and Christina Fernandez, Argentina; an indigenous leader, Evo Morales, in Bolivia. Plus, Haiti “most democratic” presidential and parliamentary elections, in 2006.
Notwithstanding, the university study also reflects that the best evidence of the difficulties of consolidating a stable democracy (in clear contrast with the strength of electoral democracy) is that 15 of the elected presidents did not complete their constitutional terms.
This democratic weakness suffered a deeper sinking by the rising of Hugo Chavez, Venezuela’s president, and the spread of his revolutionary movement across the continent which polarised the region even more.
The Climate Change compromise
Since the Paris Agreement signed by most countries in the region some progress have been shown towards achieving Climate Change big goal. Latin countries were the first in ratifying the landmark treatment in 2015 and to manifest their commitment towards reduction of carbon emissions. Despite this initial outburst of enthusiasm Latin America nations might not be able to comply with the treaty and be ready for the COP26 to be celebrated this November in Glasgow, United Kingdom.
Between 2015 and 2016 Latin American countries presented their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention in Climate Change secretariat but, apart from Costa Rica’s, they were evaluated as insufficient in helping to attaint de Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting temperature rise by 2°C, or ideally 1.5° by the end of the century. The NDCs are the core of the Paris treaty in fulfilling these long-term goals by embody efforts by each country to reduce national emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. The Paris Agreement (Article 4, paragraph 2) requires each Party to prepare, communicate and maintain successive nationally determined contributions (NDCs) that it intends to achieve. Parties shall pursue domestic mitigation measures, with the aim of achieving the objectives of such contributions.
According to the National Resources Defence Council (NRDC), in 2020 Chile became one of the first countries in the world to announce and updated its NDCs. In spite of not being considered compatible with the Paris agreement 2-degree and 1,5-degree scenarios it shows more ambition than the original one signed in 2015.
Chile complemented its new NDC with the proposal of Climate Change Law to institutionalize the country’s commitment to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. The country also has compromised with electrify all public transport and close all coal plants by 2040. As part of its offer, Chile is also carrying on with plant shutdowns ahead of schedule.
Colombian president Ivan Duque announced that its NDC will include a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 51% by 2030, a big improvement from its original 20% target. Duque Corredor said that Colombia will move forward with an energy transition, deploy clean transportation and combat deforestation. His list of environmental actions includes planting 180 million trees by 2022, protect Amazon and paramo systems and expand its Payment for Environmental Services system.
Similarly, Colombia is working on the incorporation of new themes in its NDC update. Among these, they highlight the gender approach, the just transition of the workforce, the human rights approach, a new commitment to black carbon to improve air quality, the quantification of co-benefits for air pollutants, links to improvements in public health, education, science, and financing.
Costa Rica The country known as a consistent leader on Climate change in Latin America (NRDC)made a commitment to carbon neutral by 2050 in 2019.
The council adds that Costa Rica realised a Decarbonization Plan which details how the government intents to achieve net-zero. Electrifying the public transport system, energy efficiency and the improvement of farming practices were few of the strategies outlined by the Central American nation.
NRDC remarks that like most countries, COVID-19 has slowed some progress. But with the leadership on climate that Costa Rica has already shown, they will most certainly grow back “green.” On the same note, the NRDC explains that other countries should consider a recent IDB analysis which projects that
implementing the Decarbonization Plan would bring $41 billion in net benefits from 2020-2050.
Latin American countries have few months to update their NDCs before the COP26 in Glasgow. So far it does not seem that many nations from the region will be able to update or comply with their commitments. Covid-19 aggravated the circumstances of an already fragile region. The lack of full commitment from Brazil and Mexico, the two major economics of the region, shadows the local efforts of Chile, Colombia, or Costa Rica to follow the Paris agreement. The party members of the landmark treaty will have to consider how to face the frailty of the democracies in Latin America if they want to consolidate their most needed commitments in order to preserve the world’s biodiversity and the reduction of greenhouse gases emissions to the atmosphere.